NASDAQ:AAPL – Are Apple Shares About To Crash?

NASDAQ:AAPL – Are Apple Shares About To Crash?

Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) have been on a bull run over the past six month and are up nearly 35% during the same period. With the recent iPad release, and the upcoming iPad 3G, we can expect Apple shares to continue their bull run.  There are other factors influencing the future hopes of Apple shares continuing their climb and these include continued strong MAC sales, the potential of an iPhone 4G, and expanding iPhone carriers beyond AT&T.

But what about the current stock price and to likely hood that the stock will continue it’s aggressive climb up. I wrote yesterday about how I believe that we could possibly see Apple shares hit $400 and the associated factors that could drive it to that price.

But what about the volatility of the stock, and the likelihood that it not only won’t continue it’s northward climb, but also the likelihood that it may also drop in price?

Today Apple is down about 2.65% at 262.20.

So what happens if iPad 3G sales don’t turn out to be quite as robust as investors had hoped.

And what about the controversy surrounding the iPhone? There is still no iPhone 4G and the iPhone – at least in the United States – is still only available on the AT&T network.

Should these be points of concern for the investor, or are they examples of how well run Apple is and perhaps these are actually arguments for buying more shares?

What are your thoughts about the outlook on Apple stock prices?

  • fredrik

    maybe you should stop speculating and start trading based on real numbers…. just a thought. Oh, and stop the fear mongering as well. Apple is down today together with the rest of the market. How did you fail to notice that? Really…..

    • vicki

      Thank you for your comment. I find this constant speculation and/or fear mongering to be mind-boggling. It's pathetic. If you don't have anything substantial or noteworthy to offer, then just stop talking.

  • fredrik

    maybe you should stop speculating and start trading based on real numbers…. just a thought. Oh, and stop the fear mongering as well. Apple is down today together with the rest of the market. How did you fail to notice that? Really…..

    • vicki

      Thank you for your comment. I find this constant speculation and/or fear mongering to be mind-boggling. It's pathetic. If you don't have anything substantial or noteworthy to offer, then just stop talking.

  • Constable Odo

    It almost looked like it crashed today. No matter. Oprah Winfrey gave a standing ovation for the iPad and I don't think it's going to be missed by millions of potential iPad buyers. There's nothing like free publicity. She has her books in the Apple bookstore so it's also going to help her. Maybe she'll have a day where she gives out iPads to everyone in the audience. That will help raise iPad awareness among women watchers. Great. Thanks, Oprah. The iPad is going to need all the help it can get because pundits are still trying to pull down Apple shares by claiming Apple shares are overvalued. If Apple sells about 8 million iPads this year, that will shut up some people.

  • Constable Odo

    It almost looked like it crashed today. No matter. Oprah Winfrey gave a standing ovation for the iPad and I don't think it's going to be missed by millions of potential iPad buyers. There's nothing like free publicity. She has her books in the Apple bookstore so it's also going to help her. Maybe she'll have a day where she gives out iPads to everyone in the audience. That will help raise iPad awareness among women watchers. Great. Thanks, Oprah. The iPad is going to need all the help it can get because pundits are still trying to pull down Apple shares by claiming Apple shares are overvalued. If Apple sells about 8 million iPads this year, that will shut up some people.

  • netrokid

    AAPL is still a bargain. If consumer confidence in the economy were a little better and the stock was still being traded at around 30 P/E as was the case for the last couple of years, the stock would currently be trading at over $350. Have you visited any Apple Stores recently? They're always jam-packed with consumers. Also, it seems like everyone who has played with the iPad adores it. Granted- it's not for everyone and the market isn't as ubiquitous as the mobile phone market, buy they'll make a dent. Senior citizens who have no need for a full out computer will definitely be interested in the device to stay connected with family… Ask around (to non-tech people). It seems most consumers are very interested in buying Macs, rather than PCs. This means more repeat sales down the road….now if only they decided to turn Apple TV into a real Apple "TV" (I.E. a Giant 65"-70" Flatscreen iMac you can put in your living room…) Conclusion: Apple is going to continue to grow as a business for the foreseeable future….

  • netrokid

    AAPL is still a bargain. If consumer confidence in the economy were a little better and the stock was still being traded at around 30 P/E as was the case for the last couple of years, the stock would currently be trading at over $350. Have you visited any Apple Stores recently? They're always jam-packed with consumers. Also, it seems like everyone who has played with the iPad adores it. Granted- it's not for everyone and the market isn't as ubiquitous as the mobile phone market, buy they'll make a dent. Senior citizens who have no need for a full out computer will definitely be interested in the device to stay connected with family… Ask around (to non-tech people). It seems most consumers are very interested in buying Macs, rather than PCs. This means more repeat sales down the road….now if only they decided to turn Apple TV into a real Apple "TV" (I.E. a Giant 65"-70" Flatscreen iMac you can put in your living room…) Conclusion: Apple is going to continue to grow as a business for the foreseeable future….

  • Chark

    Steve Jobs promised several new and amazing products still to be released in 2010. If they are anything near as good as iPad, iPhone 4G, etc., then the upswing will only continue to accelerate. Apple is firing on all cylinders and the competition is doing the best they can to keep up – and not doing very well at that. Netbooks may sell well because of low cost, but they generate no profit and create a bad user experience for the brand. Android phones will cannibalize each other every time a new model comes out and for developers to support all models will be difficult. I just don't see other companies focusing on the whole experience like Apple does.

  • Chark

    Steve Jobs promised several new and amazing products still to be released in 2010. If they are anything near as good as iPad, iPhone 4G, etc., then the upswing will only continue to accelerate. Apple is firing on all cylinders and the competition is doing the best they can to keep up – and not doing very well at that. Netbooks may sell well because of low cost, but they generate no profit and create a bad user experience for the brand. Android phones will cannibalize each other every time a new model comes out and for developers to support all models will be difficult. I just don't see other companies focusing on the whole experience like Apple does.

  • JJ Jones

    The market pullback was inevitable. The Greek thing was just an excuse. The GS thing was just an excuse. The market was moving up too fast and needed a correction. AAPL was THE fast mover in the market for almost a month. This had to happen. However, because the market went down, and AAPL went straight down with it, this clears the way for more upward momentum. That's my two cents worth….

  • JJ Jones

    The market pullback was inevitable. The Greek thing was just an excuse. The GS thing was just an excuse. The market was moving up too fast and needed a correction. AAPL was THE fast mover in the market for almost a month. This had to happen. However, because the market went down, and AAPL went straight down with it, this clears the way for more upward momentum. That's my two cents worth….

  • Kevin

    Robert, you were paid to write this?

  • Kevin

    Robert, you were paid to write this?

  • ssd

    Sorry, I think they are over priced.
    3.33 per share was their reported profit but the 10q said $1per share was from deferred iPhone earnings.
    In Q2 2009, they traded around 90, their CFO, one of the best, said their non-gaap revenues were around 9.2 billion.
    in Q2 2010, the non-gaap is now the gaap due to an accounting change, their revenues were 13.3 billion.
    The Q2 2009 to Q2 2010 growth was more like 33%, so 90 to 108 is more like it. Though, I think 180 with growth factored in.
    Revenue wise if you look at the 10q they had 3 Billion in deferred reveune, take that out of the revenue and q2 was more like 10.3 billion.
    In q1 2011, Apple will have no more deferred revenue on the books, they will not be able to pad their numbers anymore. There is a chance that the iPads will sell 10 million units and make up for that missing deferred revenue, but it will be very hard for apple to show revenue growth without the deferred revenue bucket.
    The other big MISS of the media was that 3.9 million iPhones were sold to Asian vendors in Q2 2010, not sold to users, apple report sales or 8.7 Million iPhones but really only about 6 Million were to real users. This could hurt Q3 numbers if the vendors in Asia don't sell out and buy more iPhones. Though Asia is hot and they will probably sell out.

  • ssd

    Sorry, I think they are over priced.
    3.33 per share was their reported profit but the 10q said $1per share was from deferred iPhone earnings.
    In Q2 2009, they traded around 90, their CFO, one of the best, said their non-gaap revenues were around 9.2 billion.
    in Q2 2010, the non-gaap is now the gaap due to an accounting change, their revenues were 13.3 billion.
    The Q2 2009 to Q2 2010 growth was more like 33%, so 90 to 108 is more like it. Though, I think 180 with growth factored in.
    Revenue wise if you look at the 10q they had 3 Billion in deferred reveune, take that out of the revenue and q2 was more like 10.3 billion.
    In q1 2011, Apple will have no more deferred revenue on the books, they will not be able to pad their numbers anymore. There is a chance that the iPads will sell 10 million units and make up for that missing deferred revenue, but it will be very hard for apple to show revenue growth without the deferred revenue bucket.
    The other big MISS of the media was that 3.9 million iPhones were sold to Asian vendors in Q2 2010, not sold to users, apple report sales or 8.7 Million iPhones but really only about 6 Million were to real users. This could hurt Q3 numbers if the vendors in Asia don't sell out and buy more iPhones. Though Asia is hot and they will probably sell out.