Comments on: NASDAQ:AAPL – Are Apple Shares About To Crash?

By: ssd

ssd — Sat, 01 May 2010 04:04:43 +0000

Sorry, I think they are over priced.
3.33 per share was their reported profit but the 10q said $1per share was from deferred iPhone earnings.
In Q2 2009, they traded around 90, their CFO, one of the best, said their non-gaap revenues were around 9.2 billion.
in Q2 2010, the non-gaap is now the gaap due to an accounting change, their revenues were 13.3 billion.
The Q2 2009 to Q2 2010 growth was more like 33%, so 90 to 108 is more like it. Though, I think 180 with growth factored in.
Revenue wise if you look at the 10q they had 3 Billion in deferred reveune, take that out of the revenue and q2 was more like 10.3 billion.
In q1 2011, Apple will have no more deferred revenue on the books, they will not be able to pad their numbers anymore. There is a chance that the iPads will sell 10 million units and make up for that missing deferred revenue, but it will be very hard for apple to show revenue growth without the deferred revenue bucket.
The other big MISS of the media was that 3.9 million iPhones were sold to Asian vendors in Q2 2010, not sold to users, apple report sales or 8.7 Million iPhones but really only about 6 Million were to real users. This could hurt Q3 numbers if the vendors in Asia don't sell out and buy more iPhones. Though Asia is hot and they will probably sell out.

By: ssd

ssd — Sat, 01 May 2010 04:04:00 +0000

By: vicki

vicki — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 18:49:52 +0000

In reply to fredrik. Thank you for your comment. I find this constant speculation and/or fear mongering to be mind-boggling. It's pathetic. If you don't have anything substantial or noteworthy to offer, then just stop talking.

By: Kevin

Kevin — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 04:57:23 +0000

Robert, you were paid to write this?

By: JJ Jones

JJ Jones — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 01:49:08 +0000

The market pullback was inevitable. The Greek thing was just an excuse. The GS thing was just an excuse. The market was moving up too fast and needed a correction. AAPL was THE fast mover in the market for almost a month. This had to happen. However, because the market went down, and AAPL went straight down with it, this clears the way for more upward momentum. That's my two cents worth….

By: Chark

Chark — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 21:31:20 +0000

Steve Jobs promised several new and amazing products still to be released in 2010. If they are anything near as good as iPad, iPhone 4G, etc., then the upswing will only continue to accelerate. Apple is firing on all cylinders and the competition is doing the best they can to keep up – and not doing very well at that. Netbooks may sell well because of low cost, but they generate no profit and create a bad user experience for the brand. Android phones will cannibalize each other every time a new model comes out and for developers to support all models will be difficult. I just don't see other companies focusing on the whole experience like Apple does.

By: Chark

Chark — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 21:31:00 +0000

By: netrokid

netrokid — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 19:12:17 +0000

AAPL is still a bargain. If consumer confidence in the economy were a little better and the stock was still being traded at around 30 P/E as was the case for the last couple of years, the stock would currently be trading at over $350. Have you visited any Apple Stores recently? They're always jam-packed with consumers. Also, it seems like everyone who has played with the iPad adores it. Granted- it's not for everyone and the market isn't as ubiquitous as the mobile phone market, buy they'll make a dent. Senior citizens who have no need for a full out computer will definitely be interested in the device to stay connected with family… Ask around (to non-tech people). It seems most consumers are very interested in buying Macs, rather than PCs. This means more repeat sales down the road….now if only they decided to turn Apple TV into a real Apple "TV" (I.E. a Giant 65"-70" Flatscreen iMac you can put in your living room…) Conclusion: Apple is going to continue to grow as a business for the foreseeable future….

By: Constable Odo

Constable Odo — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 17:23:23 +0000

It almost looked like it crashed today. No matter. Oprah Winfrey gave a standing ovation for the iPad and I don't think it's going to be missed by millions of potential iPad buyers. There's nothing like free publicity. She has her books in the Apple bookstore so it's also going to help her. Maybe she'll have a day where she gives out iPads to everyone in the audience. That will help raise iPad awareness among women watchers. Great. Thanks, Oprah. The iPad is going to need all the help it can get because pundits are still trying to pull down Apple shares by claiming Apple shares are overvalued. If Apple sells about 8 million iPads this year, that will shut up some people.

By: fredrik

fredrik — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 16:18:27 +0000

maybe you should stop speculating and start trading based on real numbers…. just a thought. Oh, and stop the fear mongering as well. Apple is down today together with the rest of the market. How did you fail to notice that? Really…..