A new report from researchers at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy lays out three scenarios of how long will the coronavirus last.
Experts suggested the COVID-19 outbreak will last between 18 and 24 months. The pandemic likely will not be halted until 60% to 70% of the population is immune.
The worst scenario includes a larger wave of coronavirus infections this fall and winter. States need to prepare for this.
The pandemic may last until 2022.
Anyhow, Michael Osterholm and his colleagues examined multiple models that predict future coronavirus impacts. They included research about how well COVID-19 spreads between people, and data from past pandemics to reach their conclusions.
The coronavirus pandemic is similar to the Spanish flu pandemic. Both the influenza pandemic and COVID-19 spread through droplets when coughing or sneezing and can pass between infected people showing no symptoms.
However, experts are still not sure what to expect.
Coronavirus spreads more easily than the flu does..
Report’s authors say that they do not know how long will the coronavirus last and how to control and stop this pandemic.
Osterholm’s group came up with three possible scenarios about what might come after this first wave of coronavirus infections ends.
In the first scenario, the first COVID-19 waves are followed by a series of repetitive, smaller waves that occur through the summer. Those waves, which come with a lower number of infections. Also, which will persist over a one- to two-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021.
Moreover, where those smaller waves occur depend on what measures certain geographic areas would enforce.
The second, most likely and worst of them, is where the first wave is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020. Additionally it will be followed by one or more smaller waves in 2021.
A second wave with more infections would require countries to reinstitute mitigation measures.
Finally, the third scenario suggests that the first wave of coronavirus infections is the only wave.
In the coming months, the COVID-19 pandemic would shift into a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and new cases.
This possibility means that countries likely would not need to lockdown again. However, cases and deaths would continue to occur.
Each projection could be influenced by the development of a vaccine, but it is unknown how long will the coronavirus last.